The RAM shortage just crossed a critical threshold. Phison CEO Pua Khein-Seng, whose company makes the memory controller chips that power everything from SSDs to consumer electronics, has put a hard date and harder reality on an infrastructure constraint that's been simmering for months. By the second half of 2026, companies unable to secure memory components won't just face pricing pressure or constrained volumes—they'll face discontinuation or collapse. The window for action is now. For enterprises and hardware makers, this is the moment to secure commitments, diversify suppliers, and make hard product portfolio decisions before H2 2026 forces them.

What makes this inflection different from previous component shortages is the specificity and the source. Phison doesn't hype supply chains. The company builds the silicon that sits between DRAM and the devices consuming it. When Pua Khein-Seng tells a Taiwanese broadcaster that companies will "die" without memory access by H2 2026, that's not speculation—it's what he's seeing in the order books and allocation talks happening right now.

The interview happened in Chinese on Next TV, but the translation that's made headlines across the hardware industry is consistent: product line cuts are coming in the second half of 2026, and some companies won't make it through at all. This is the moment the RAM shortage stops being a pricing story and becomes an existential one.

Let's be clear what's shifted. For the past 18 months, the narrative around memory supply has been tight but manageable. Prices spiked. OEMs complained. Some devices got delayed. But companies adapted, found workarounds, pivoted to lower-memory SKUs. The constraint was real but not fatal. Phison's warning signals we're crossing into a different phase.

The timing clarification is crucial. H2 2026 gives us 12 months from now. That's not a vague future threat—that's a decision window that closes hard. For electronics manufacturers, product planning cycles typically lock 9-12 months out. If you're launching hardware in H2 2026, your memory commitments need to be locked down now. If you're not locked down now, you're gambling that supply magically normalizes. Phison's warning suggests that bet loses.

Why is memory pinched? The infrastructure story here runs deeper than a single constraint. AI training and inference clusters are consuming unprecedented amounts of DRAM and specialized memory. Data centers are hoarding capacity. Consumer demand hasn't dropped. Traditional DRAM manufacturers have spent the last year expanding capacity, but fab timelines mean new production doesn't hit the market until late 2025 at the earliest. By then, demand has already locked up allocation for another 12 months.

For consumer electronics specifically—the segment Phison's warning targets—this is catastrophic. Laptops, tablets, gaming devices, smart TVs, IoT hardware—all compete for the same pool of memory components. If you're a mid-tier manufacturer without the negotiating power of Apple or Samsung, you're watching your allocation shrink relative to demand. H2 2026 is when that shrinkage forces impossible choices: discontinue product lines, raise prices 25-40% and accept demand destruction, or exit categories entirely.

This mirrors the semiconductor shortage of 2021-2022, but with a crucial difference. That shortage hit unpredictably and resolved faster than expected once capacity came online. This one has visible causation (AI infrastructure demand), a known timeline (12 months), and clear winners and losers (companies with supply agreements versus those still negotiating). It's more like the hard-drive shortage when Thailand flooded in 2011—once supply locked up, smaller manufacturers simply couldn't replace inventory.

What companies should be doing right now: Securing multi-year memory contracts with guaranteed allocations. This costs more upfront but locks in supply. Redesigning products to work with lower memory configurations, creating defensible SKU options if premium variants face allocation cuts. Evaluating whether certain product lines are worth the margin if memory constraints force price increases above market tolerance. The companies that move in the next 60-90 days—before supply contracts tighten further—have options. Those waiting for clarity get rationed.

Investors should watch for announcements of long-term memory supply deals. When major OEMs publicly disclose secured capacity, that's a signal they see the H2 2026 cutoff and are moving. Conversely, companies that stay quiet on supply procurement are either already secured (unlikely, they'd signal confidence) or hoping it resolves (likely to be wrong). The stock market hasn't priced in potential failures of smaller electronics manufacturers yet. That pricing will come once supply chain teams start flagging the risk internally.

For professionals in hardware engineering and supply chain roles, this is your moment to matter. Companies facing H2 2026 constraints will promote and hire people who can navigate the shortage intelligently. Skill demand shifts toward supply chain optimization, memory-efficient architecture, and procurement expertise. If you've been thinking about moving into a bigger role with more strategic influence, this inflection is your entry point.

The RAM shortage inflection point is real, quantified, and has a deadline: H2 2026. Phison's warning carries authority because the company sits at the intersection of memory manufacturing and device implementation. For decision-makers in electronics manufacturing, the window to lock down supply contracts is closing now. For builders and engineers, this shifts product planning from 'work around constraints' to 'design for memory scarcity.' For investors, the next signal comes when major OEMs announce long-term memory procurement deals or when smaller manufacturers start warning about supply risks. Watch Q2 2026 component allocations—that's when the inflection becomes undeniable.